Well, the Army just nullified two cabinet decisions, Hizballah is withdrawing its gunmen and everyone is breathing a sigh of relief. So the question I’ve been wracking my brains trying to figure out “Why is this little war happening now?” Then I read an article in yesterday’s Los Angeles Times by Borzou Daragahi and Raed Rafei. While it’s not a core of the article, this passage set the ole Spidey Sense a-tinglin’:
For now, Hezbollah's offensive achieved one significant military goal: crushing the budding forces of Hariri's Sunni Future movement, a constellation of poorly trained and lightly equipped government supporters organized around neighborhood offices and private security companies run by retired army officers.
Suddenly, the whole thing makes sense. Hizballah has recently acquired a capacity for monitoring
I’m a little shocked that the Future Movement hasn’t gotten further with building a militia, but the past two days makes it very clear that any militia they had constructed was in no shape to counter Hizballah.
Hizballah is protecting its monopoly of private violence. It’s a strange strategy, but it’s fairly clear that Hizballah doesn’t want to become the state in
My new theory is that they are committed to consensus rule in which they are the primus inter pares. They may want simply to take over the role of
The only other theory that seems slightly rational to me is that Hizballah might really see itself as what it paints itself to be—a resistance movement targeting
Let’s see what Hizballah asks for when they sit back down with the March 14 Forces. If they still ask for the veto, instead of something like a Shi`i PM, I think I’ll have to take it as a clear and definitive sign that they intend to be seen as a proponent of the 1926 constitution. It will certainly illustrate that Nasrallah is capable of considerable restraint in favor of pursuing his long-term goals and is not drunk on his own power.